Futures market: The most-traded SHFE aluminum 2412 contract opened at 20,875 yuan/mt overnight, reaching a high of 21,005 yuan/mt and a low of 20,825 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,980 yuan/mt, down 220 yuan/mt from the previous close, a decrease of 1.04%. Trading volume was 80,000 lots, open interest was 198,000 lots, with a daily reduction of 5,774 lots. On Wednesday, LME aluminum opened at $2,639/mt, reached a high of $2,653/mt, a low of $2,568.5/mt, and closed at $2,615/mt, down $44/mt, a decrease of 1.65%.
Summary: On the macro front, trade on Trump victory returns, with the US dollar index fluctuating upward. Short-term macro sentiment is highly volatile, putting pressure on the metal market, and aluminum futures fell overnight. In the medium and long term, global monetary policy and inflation trends still need attention. On the fundamentals side, the recent rise in aluminum costs is significant, with some companies planning to shut down for maintenance, but the impact on production is limited, and the supply and demand relationship remains relatively stable. Social inventory has been affected by transportation issues, continuously destocking to below the 600,000 mt mark. Alumina spot supply is tight, and with some companies reducing or halting production, alumina prices are fluctuating upward, providing strong support to aluminum prices from the cost side. Overall, domestic aluminum remains in a state of low inventory and rising costs, and short-term aluminum prices may fluctuate upward.
